The tech space is especially fun for predictions, but also challenging due to the rapid pace of innovation and the many variables that must be considered in product adoption. (For an amusing spoof of tech forecasts, check out Super Important Internet Predictions for 2k11.)
Each year, we offer our insights on the year ahead, published in the CompTIA report IT Industry Business Confidence Index and 2011 Outlook. Using a broad-based survey of more than 1,100 IT industry executives, combined with numerous other data streams and proprietary research, we identify and make sense of key tech and IT channel trends. A few excerpts from the report:
Industry Outlook
- The latest CompTIA IT Industry Business Confidence Index points to renewed optimism and a strengthening economy. The index, an average of economic, IT industry and company-level sentiment, jumped seven points, reaching its highest point since inception.
- Mirroring improved business sentiment, global IT industry sales should also see a lift. CompTIA projects global IT industry spending growth of four percent, with upside growth potential of six percent. IT companies expect slightly higher growth in the areas of IT services and software, as well as in the enterprise market. Reflecting their fast-growing economies, respondents in Brazil, India and China are especially bullish with their forecasts, predicting upside IT industry revenue growth of 7.5 percent.
Tech and IT Channel Trends
For 2011, look for a range of incremental improvements as firms move from exploration to adoption of emerging technologies. The big trends revolve around data, connections, mobility and evolving business models. CompTIA identified 12 keys trends that will impact the IT industry in 2011.
Trend #1: The Cloud Is Calling
- Trend: Clearly, cloud computing has lots of momentum, but the nature of many discussions brings to mind Amara’s Law, which states: businesses tend to overestimate a technology’s impact in the short-run and underestimate its impact in the long-run. IDC estimates that during 2011, 15 percent of all IT revenue will be tied to the cloud (directly or through supporting infrastructure).
- Why: According to our research, customers have embraced cloud computing because of the desire to increase flexibility, tap new capabilities, reduce the IT maintenance burden, improve the user-experience and reduce capital costs.
- Hurdles: Understanding risks, financial implications and tradeoffs of the cloud model, integration and interoperability with legacy systems, vendor lock-in and legal/regulatory issues will keep CIOs awake in 2011.
Trend #6: Business Model Remodeling
- Trend: VARs and solution providers wrestle with the transition from the traditional reseller model of product sales/project work to a services-oriented type business. Nearly 90 percent of VARs view private cloud development as a growing opportunity/trend this year, for example.
- Why: Rise in cloud computing, managed services, desire for recurring revenue, customer demand for reduced IT complexity and IT to be op-ex vs. cap-ex.
- Hurdles: Finding a revenue model that works, building initial customer pipeline, sales reorientation/training, fear of disintermediation (either customers going direct to vendor or self-service for SaaS apps, for example).
For the complete list of trends and more details on the IT industry outlook, see the complete report (available at no cost to CompTIA members).
